Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
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What's it going to be Todd K? What's your analysis?

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
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Going to be the best derby in years! Most talented crop in a long, long, time. Of course I'm not betting the favorite Justify. No horse has won that didn't run as a 2 year old.

Right now I am on Good Magic. A Curlin colt which I like. I think his draw sets up well for him. Tough horse.

Watch out for Magnum Moon (this colt is a beast!) and Vino Rossi (another Curlin colt). I predict they hit the board.

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Registered: Jul 2008
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How much are Magnum Moon and Vino Rossi handicapped by their post draw? Can they overcome that to get into the money?

Audible? Bolt D? Any thoughts?

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
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Those outside draws don't help that's for sure. Audible and Bolt are both legit. So is that grass horse Mendellsohn. I think I count seven horses that I wouldnot be surprised to see win it. It's going to boil down to who gets the best trip I guess. I just hope Good Magic let's Justify and the rest of the early speed go and doesn't get in a dual with them. I think he can rate and be there at the end to pick up the pieces. If Good Magic goes off anywhere near his 12-1 morning line that is going to be a good play I think.

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Registered: Jul 2008
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Last minute......

For a couple looooonngg odds to gamble on for a possible big payout..... I'm looking at Solomini and Enticed..... of the 40:1 or worse odds do you see any better values?

What's with all the game day love for My Boy Jack?

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It was a great race. Can Justify be a Triple Crown winner?

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Registered: Jun 2003
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I did not understand the love for My Boy Jack either?

As soon as I saw it was an off track I knew we were in trouble with Justify. Quality speed has an advantage in the slop. I thought Good Magic ran a great race. All in all it was a good derby.

I think Justify will likely win the Preakness but no way he wins at Belmont.

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Registered: Jul 2008
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Good call on Good Magic!!! We used him in our Trifecta and Exactas and scored!!! The rain definitely favored the favorites.

Trifecta payout wasn't that spectacular since it was 3 strong odds horses. If Instilled Regard would have snuck in the top 3 at 90-1 the payout would have been enormous. Look at the Superfecta! $19,000 on a $1 bet!

Sounds like My Boy Jack was getting the love because people liked his name. He lived up to it a little bit at 5th place.

Apparently the sloppy conditions really threw Mendelssohn way off his game. This ain't grass!

What's behind your take on Justify at the Belmont? Just the distance?

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Registered: Jun 2003
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Yes the distance. I don't remember ever seeing a horse wire the Belmont? I don't know if he is versatile enough to sit off the pace? Plus someone usually brings in some well rested specialist. Tough race.

That's cool you had some live tickets for the Derby! Would have been a good year for me to be somewhere I could have bet. I don't trust myself enough to open an on-line account. lol

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Registered: Jul 2008
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So it sounds like Justify is looking and feeling good. And Chad Brown is liking what he seeing from Good Magic.

SO of the horses not named Justify or Good Magic, who are you looking at Todd?

I see Bravazo is getting some early love but I'm not feeling it.

I've got a couple in mind but will wait to see what you say.

Of course they haven't drawn for posts yet but with such a small field I'm guessing that's not as big of factor.

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Registered: Jul 2008
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So it appears that the Preakness is actually a 2 horse race with 6 field fillers brought in to race for 3rd and make it look like a real race. Or am I missing something?

If it plays out the way they are predicting the payouts are going to be nil. I'm thinking of picking Justify and Good Magic 1-2 and wheeling the rest of the field for show in a Trifecta. Then hope that Lone Sailor or some other longshot pulls off 3rd to boost the payout.

Also working on some Superfecta angles since it would seem that 1st and 2nd are a foregone conclusion. Just need to figure out which of the also-rans are going to be there for 3rd and 4th.

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Another great race on a sloppy track.

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Registered: Jun 2003
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I was off last week on vacation at a cabin on a trout stream that got like 2 channels on t.v. and no cell service. So I completely forgot about the Preakness. I'll have to watch the replay. But yes, we caught trout and banded woodcock chicks so that's the important thing! lol

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Registered: Jun 2003
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Tsbtater...did you cash a win slip?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Todd K / UKC
Tsbtater...did you cash a win slip?

---

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Registered: Jul 2008
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It was a great race!!! Wish I could have seen more of it. LOL! and a couple more strides and Bravazo would have knocked Baffert off his perch too.

Good Magic's trainer said they were going to "try something different" and they did. Looked like they were trying to push Justify and try to outlast him. Didn't have the gas to finish it though but it did open the door for the others.

I didn't believe the hype that Quip was going to come in fresh and give Justify a run for the money either. That was marketing.

I'm far from an expert but I think Justify is toast in a few weeks and I would guess that Baffert and company know it. I haven't looked but I assume Audible is going to be back with 5 weeks of rest. And Bravazo and Tenfold will likely be in the mix again too.

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the Belmont as always will test their metal at a mile and a half....they just might out last him on a fast track....

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After watching Bravazo finishing hard like he did in the Preakness I'd have to think his chances at winning the longer Belmont would be real good.

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Registered: Jun 2003
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Just watched replay. That was an awesome race. A true duel between two good horses the whole way. And then the closers flying on the outside. Also the fog just made it seem so surreal?

Audible is going to get a lot of play in the Belmont I think.

Good find on Bravazo TSB. You liked him from the start.

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Actually I was a little cautious about Bravazo early in the week but came around by the weekend. Tenfold was the find of the Preakness. The "experts" missed that one totally. Wish I had utilized him more.

Audible and a couple others that sat out the Preakness are going to be the ones to watch. I think Bravazo has had his 2 shots at Justify and didn't get it done, now he's in the same boat having run both the Derby and Preakness.

Need to study up on Hofburg, Blended Citizen, and Vino Rosso.

Todd, you get my PM?

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Registered: Jul 2008
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Guessing that Baffert isn't overjoyed with Justify drawing the 1 post yesterday. Haven't looked back to his first few races but I don't know that Justify has ever had to rate?

I am also guessing Baffert entered Restoring Hope to be a rabbit and that Pletcher did the same with Noble Indy to be a rabbit and help Vino Rosso.

Aside from all the Triple Crown hype I don't see Justify being as strong of a choice as the odds indicate. 6 races in about 4 months and he didn't look like he had the gas for another 2 1/2 furlongs at the end of the Preakness. Who knows? Either I'm wrong and he wins it or I could also see him getting swallowed up in the stretch and not even showing up in the top 4-5.

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Why would Baffert enter a rabbit knowing his best horse is one dimensional and wants to be in front? Doesn't make sense? You sure that entry is not a deep closer? I need to go look at the PP's. I've been slacking these last two races. lol

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Registered: Jun 2003
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I think Justify will run a good race but gets beat by Tenfold. I think Bravazo and Vino Roso hit the board. I think Hoffburg does not live up to the hype and is well beaten.

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Registered: Nov 2006
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I’m going with Justify

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Registered: Jul 2008
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I don't know if Justify is one dimensional or not. Haven't seen his first 3 race wins. Maybe he can rate or maybe Bob thinks he can at least, and Hope is sent out to set a fast pace and scrub some speed off of others that think they are going to run the front?

I'm coming around a bit on Noble Indy, if only because he is a Pletcher product.......at the Belmont.....that skipped the Preakness... That seems to be a potent combination.

Maybe Justify lives up to the hype and goes out and gallops them all into the dirt like Pharoah? I also could see a scenario where if he doesn't win he finishes mid pack, fades and gets swarmed late and ends up an also ran.

If the latter is true it could make for some serious payouts if some mid to higher odds horses finish at the top.

Makes for a head scratcher for wagering.

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