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sleepy head
UKC Forum Member

Registered: May 2015
Location: IN
Posts: 1951

TW were I little over half of the field at the zones and the "off colored" the rest

Might of missed one or two

TW had 97 cast wins
Off colored had 89 cast wins

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Old Post 09-15-2019 10:11 PM
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shadinc
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Registered: Jun 2014
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 2098

Walkers won 52.150538% Off color won 47.849462%. Isn't that about what the entries were?

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Old Post 09-15-2019 10:26 PM
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Richard Lambert
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Registered: Aug 2004
Location: Chattanooga, Tn
Posts: 17442

Re: Mr. Lambert

quote:
Originally posted by Dave Richards
No disrespect intended, I am just picking at you. Hope you take all this as fun and not feel disrespected in any way. If I have in any way offended you, I apologize. Dave


You haven't offended me but you have disrespected my little female Bobbie who can't help it that her tail gene mutated sometime in her gestatation. You are probably one of those guys that make fun of kids with birth defects.

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Old Post 09-15-2019 10:33 PM
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Dave Richards
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Registered: Apr 2015
Location: church hill tn
Posts: 3295

% statistics

While it's fun to look at these things, they are meaningless. It only takes 1 dig if any breed that is good enough to win every cast to win the World Hunt. You could have 103 Walkers in the World Hunt and 1 Bluetick and if the Bluetick was good enough to win their cast every time, they would win the hunt. Odds mean nothing when it comes to ability to win, odds only count when something depends on a random selection. Hunts are won on talent and ability and not by a lucky draw out of a hat. Dave

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Old Post 09-15-2019 10:39 PM
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Dave Richards
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Registered: Apr 2015
Location: church hill tn
Posts: 3295

Mr. Lambert

I actually like that little Bob tailed dog, and if were younger and could actually train a dog, I would love to own her. I bet she makes a coondog. No, I would never make fun of anything with a disability, I don't consider a Bob tail a disability may not meet a breed standard but has nothing to do with ability. Dave

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Old Post 09-15-2019 10:46 PM
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sleepy head
UKC Forum Member

Registered: May 2015
Location: IN
Posts: 1951

Re: % statistics

quote:
Originally posted by Dave Richards
While it's fun to look at these things, they are meaningless. It only takes 1 dig if any breed that is good enough to win every cast to win the World Hunt. You could have 103 Walkers in the World Hunt and 1 Bluetick and if the Bluetick was good enough to win their cast every time, they would win the hunt. Odds mean nothing when it comes to ability to win, odds only count when something depends on a random selection. Hunts are won on talent and ability and not by a lucky draw out of a hat. Dave


Here why numbers increase the odds of the walkers. Let's say you got 100 dogs, one is red the rest walkers. Individually they all have a 1% chance to win with everything else equal. But it's 99% chance it will be the breed with 99 dogs

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Old Post 09-16-2019 04:09 PM
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Adam Wingler
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Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Western NC
Posts: 1437

The best single poker player in the world, nailed down to one hand, still better get dealt some really great cards.

The field will NEVER be even, take the color off the dogs, make them all the same, and then it wouldn't matter when talking breed chances.

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Old Post 09-16-2019 04:15 PM
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Richard Lambert
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Registered: Aug 2004
Location: Chattanooga, Tn
Posts: 17442

When everybody there is packing a coondog, numbers matter.

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Old Post 09-16-2019 05:22 PM
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Dave Richards
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Registered: Apr 2015
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Posts: 3295

Numbers

Saying numbers matter is assuming all of the dogs are equal in ability and we know that just don't hold water. The best dog will win their cast regardless of color, breed numbers don't give a breed an advantage, ability does. Now the more numbers of a certain breed increases the chance of the best dog being in that breed. Dave

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Old Post 09-16-2019 08:06 PM
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Richard Lambert
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Registered: Aug 2004
Location: Chattanooga, Tn
Posts: 17442

Re: Numbers

quote:
Originally posted by Dave Richards
Saying numbers matter is assuming all of the dogs are equal in ability and we know that just don't hold water. The best dog will win their cast regardless of color, breed numbers don't give a breed an advantage, ability does. Now the more numbers of a certain breed increases the chance of the best dog being in that breed. Dave


Oh my goodness, now you are just blabbering.

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Old Post 09-16-2019 08:16 PM
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shadinc
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Registered: Jun 2014
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 2098

Re: Re: Numbers

quote:
Originally posted by Richard Lambert
Oh my goodness, now you are just blabbering.
It makes perfect sense to me.

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Old Post 09-16-2019 08:31 PM
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Richard Lambert
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Registered: Aug 2004
Location: Chattanooga, Tn
Posts: 17442

"Equal in ability"....
How many traits do coon hounds have that make up their "ability". Now then how much more or less does each dog have of these traits. All have more or less of one trait and more or less of another trait. Each circumstance in a hunt requires more or less of each trait. Which circumstances come into play are different in every hunt. Any coonhunter can tell you that every cast is different. There are way too many variables to say which dog has the most "ability" on any given night. Now how is that for "blabbering".

And that doesn't take into account the handlers or lady luck. Any experienced handler will tell you that they would rather be lucky than good. Of course some seem to make their own luck.

Ask any honest coonhunter who has been there and they will tell you that 50 of those hundred dogs there could win it all.

Last edited by Richard Lambert on 09-16-2019 at 08:56 PM

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Old Post 09-16-2019 08:52 PM
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Donnie Stevens
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Registered: Jul 2004
Location: Nova Scotia,Canada
Posts: 2361

I'd bet the farm you could have that hunt every weekend for two months and the same dog wouldn't win twice.

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Old Post 09-16-2019 09:16 PM
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Dave Richards
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Registered: Apr 2015
Location: church hill tn
Posts: 3295

Sleepy head

Your logic is flawed, your example assumes all dogs are equal in ability, they are not. 99 walkers increases the chance that it would be a Walker that was the best dog, but it could be the Redbones that was the best. In your example ALL dogs would have to have the same ability, thus giving every dog an equal chance at winning. If it was a lottery, you would be correct, putting 100 names in a hat and drawing one name out would give the Walkers a 99 percent chance if winning. It's not a lottery, they have to out perform all other dogs in their cast. Dave

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Old Post 09-16-2019 09:35 PM
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sleepy head
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Registered: May 2015
Location: IN
Posts: 1951

Re: Sleepy head

quote:
Originally posted by Dave Richards
Your logic is flawed, your example assumes all dogs are equal in ability, they are not. 99 walkers increases the chance that it would be a Walker that was the best dog, but it could be the Redbones that was the best. In your example ALL dogs would have to have the same ability, thus giving every dog an equal chance at winning. If it was a lottery, you would be correct, putting 100 names in a hat and drawing one name out would give the Walkers a 99 percent chance if winning. It's not a lottery, they have to out perform all other dogs in their cast. Dave


I'll agree it's not perfect, that's why I said everything else equal. But no denying breed numbers are a major factor on which breed the champ comes from but certainly not the only

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Old Post 09-16-2019 10:18 PM
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Dave Richards
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Posts: 3295

Sleepy head

I agree that breed numbers increase the likihood of that breed having the best dog. The greater the number the better the chance of that being the case. It's more if an indication that the hunters put more faith in a certain breed than the other breeds. Why do more hunters hunt Walker dogs? Simple, they win the most hunts. Saying that, an xbreed by the name of Sambo beat all dogs that year, should he have been there? No, but he won every cast and won the World Hunt anyway you look at it. I don't condone how he got there, but you can not take away the fact that he won the hunt beating every dog he hunted against. Dave

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Old Post 09-16-2019 11:04 PM
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Richard Lambert
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Location: Chattanooga, Tn
Posts: 17442

Did Sambo beat them or did his handler beat them?

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Old Post 09-17-2019 12:12 AM
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Dave Richards
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Mr. Lambert

All we know is that Sambo won every cast he was in at the World Hunt that year. Every cast had judges along, you make up your own mind. I AM NOT a fan of the handler, but Sambo was the real deal, still is in anyone's book. Should he have been in the Hunt? No , What happened in the Zones was WRONG, but he Won the Hunt just the same. He did not get to keep his Title as we all know and I definitely agree with that decision. Blame the handler for being a crook, but don't blame Sambo, he proved himself against the best dogs in the hunt. Dave

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Dave Richards Treeing Walkers Reg American Saddlebred and Registered Rocky Mt. Show Horses

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Old Post 09-17-2019 01:11 AM
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pamjohnson
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Registered: Feb 2012
Location: airville,pa
Posts: 1666

I feel the handler could have more to do with the outcome of the hunt than the dog. Who can Figure that into the odds?

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Old Post 09-17-2019 01:45 PM
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Adam Wingler
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Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Western NC
Posts: 1437

quote:
Originally posted by pamjohnson
I feel the handler could have more to do with the outcome of the hunt than the dog. Who can Figure that into the odds?


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Old Post 09-17-2019 03:20 PM
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Ron Moore
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Registered: Jan 2006
Location: WV
Posts: 758

Odds??

Here's how I have it figured. The Walkers may have the better odds/numbers but they also have more to loose. By being the big favored you also have a target on your back. In my opinion, it takes so many things to come into play, dog, handler, location, coon population, guide, I think you get the picture. My prediction is that a dang good/lucky coon dog will win and it doesn't make any less of its completion. Most every dog that has made it this far could make it through, numbers or not. There you have it, my unbiased opinion, like it or not, we're all just playing a guessing game at this point. Pull for your favorite and don't make excuses when they loose and congratulate the winner!

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Old Post 09-17-2019 06:56 PM
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