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Todd K / UKC
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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
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Derby Picks?

Used to be a few horse racing fans on here. Pretty evenly matched field of good horses this year. Track condition is always a factor and it's looking like an off track.

Omaha Beach looks to be as good as advertised. I really like him but can't bet the favorite.

I will use Tacitus in some different bets. Gritty tough and fast.

If it's dry I think I have to use Win Win Win somewhere. If it's wet it's hard to leave Max Security out.

Thoughts?

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Old Post 05-01-2019 03:31 PM
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curt messmer
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Registered: Aug 2009
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derby

Better not bet against Omaha Beach and Bob Baffart--opps he's scratched lol

Last edited by curt messmer on 05-02-2019 at 12:07 AM

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Old Post 05-01-2019 11:51 PM
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tsbtater
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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
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I'm way behind schedule on my research this year. But will probably end up doing just about my usual success rate at wagering... LOL

Omaha Beach seems to be getting all the love. I've heard some rumblings about Win Win Win and Code of Honor as far as options that would pay better. Both are closers which could be tough with a big field.

I hate handicapping 20 horse fields. So many things can happen. The undercard races are the place to make some money. Then lose it all on the feature......

Who are all the Curlin colts in the field Todd? What are you liking about Tacitus?

I probably need to study Improbable and Roadster. Plus one of those 20-1 or 30-1 horses normally finds it's way into the top 3-4.

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Old Post 05-02-2019 05:24 AM
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tsbtater
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And just like that Baffert has the 3 favorites.....

All Baffert trifecta? Bet a trainer has never managed that one.

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Todd K / UKC
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Wow...that changes things. Hate to see the big gun miss the race but kudos to them in looking out for the horse first.

I was totally bummed out three months ago when I saw there were no Curlin's on the list of contenders. I honestly did not follow the preps at all this year. I watched them all the other day to see who caught my attention.

The first to catch my attention was Tacitus. He got knocked all around in his Wood Memorial win. Did not affect him. Dug in and ran past them. I think that toughness plus his speed numbers plus his just off the pace running style plus his post draw bode well for the derby.

The next to catch my attention was Max Security. He is not cheap speed. He has a legitimate chance to wire this race if they let him get away on an off track. Even on a fast track he would scare me. If they send some cheap speed to the front most think Max can and will rate.

Right now I will likely play either Tacitus or Max Security across the board depending on who has the best odds. I will also bet an exacta box with those two horses.

Now I need to find a longer odds horse for my tri because you know one of them is likely to hit the board. What longshots you looking at?

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Old Post 05-02-2019 01:49 PM
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tsbtater
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War of Will and By My Standards.

I would consider Toddy but for his post draw out in deep right field.

My thoughts on Triple Crown odds.... if Omaha Beach was as good as advertised, and they get him fixed for the Preakness or Belmont, he's going to be the ultimate spoiler.

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ringtail
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Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Tennessee
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War of Will
Game Winner
Improbable

1,2,3

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tsbtater
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Yes, War of Will for a better money / longer odds horse.....

For now.... I'm guessing he won't go off at his current 20-1. He'll be single digits by post time. Winning might be a stretch, from the 1 post with 19 other horses he's going to have to put the jets on early. Guess we'll see if he can maintain that.

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tsbtater
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Well I completely bombed the Oaks tonight...... probably foreshadowing my whole weekend.

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Old Post 05-04-2019 01:00 AM
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ringtail
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quote:
Originally posted by tsbtater
Yes, War of Will for a better money / longer odds horse.....

For now.... I'm guessing he won't go off at his current 20-1. He'll be single digits by post time. Winning might be a stretch, from the 1 post with 19 other horses he's going to have to put the jets on early. Guess we'll see if he can maintain that.



On a hot day and dry turf, I would probably gone a different route. The last forecast I saw said rain rain, if that holds up I may have the edge it'll take. He'll shine on a sloppy track.

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tsbtater
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We're taking Improbable, Tacitus, and Maximum Security in some order and tossing in War of Will. Boxing those four for our exotics.

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Littletown
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Wow, what a mess at the Derby !!! An exciting race for sure....

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Old Post 05-05-2019 12:22 AM
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tsbtater
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WOW.....

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Todd K / UKC
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I respectfully disagree with the decision. That's all I will say.

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Old Post 05-06-2019 01:37 PM
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Robert Johnson
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They found out that Trump had money on the winner and those democrats could not let him win again. JMO

maximum security is short for secret service detail. LOL

Seriously it is a decision that will have long lasting effects on horse racing for years to come. I don't respect it at all as Todd does. I just plain disagree period. I am not the politically correct person that he has to be, and others want me to be.

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shadinc
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If that horse couldn't take that little bump he surely couldn't tree with some of the dogs I've been with lately.

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Old Post 05-07-2019 12:33 AM
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Rex Ridge
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The jockey said it spooked, it wasn't intentional, I don't agree with the decision either.

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tsbtater
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Complete garbage.

Veering, drifting lanes, and bumping happen all the time and way worse than that. Toss in a 19 horse field and a horrible sloppy track...

I can't see anything remotely intentional by the jockey. In fact, if you watch him around that corner he is cranking on Max Security to the left to try to hold him in line and get him back in his lane. 2,000 pounds of amped up competitive animal vs. 126 pound jockey.

A complete injustice to the jockey, trainer, owner, and most of all the horse.

Horse racing is finished it the eliminate any contact or any jockey strategy at all. If that's the case just eliminate the jockeys and let the horses run wild around the track.....

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Old Post 05-07-2019 03:17 PM
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Todd K / UKC
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One of the things I don't understand and have never had explained to me is how turn 4 is any different than turn 1? Or anywhere on the track for that matter. If you get cut off or have to pull up in either turn it can basically put you out of the race. Yet turn 1 is a total free-for-all and turn 4 is going to DQ a horse for a slight drift?

I understand the safety issue. I don't want to see unsafe practices. That would be terrible for the sport. But starting a 20 horse field and then calling minor fouls is ridiculous. Whether it's the sake of tradition or greed something has to change to improve the fairness of this race because the best horse on that day just got robbed.

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Old Post 05-07-2019 04:15 PM
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tsbtater
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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
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Looks like a pretty weak Preakness field shaping up. I'm thinking Improbable is the way to go for a winner but I haven't studied up on a few of the new faces.

War of Will on the rail again. Was he actually a threat to hit the board at the KD? Did the "bump heard round the world" cost him a better finish? Or was he going to fade anyhow?

Owedale, Anothertwistoffate, and Alwaysmining probably deserve a better look if they are fresher than those recovering from the KD.

Country House must know they succeeded in the biggest heist in the history of horse racing so they are hiding out.

I just hope Maximum Security comes back for the Belmont and runs everyone into the ground.

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Old Post 05-17-2019 05:52 AM
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Littletown
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Congratulations to War of Wills, winner of the Preakness.

But another interesting race, with Bodexpress bucking his rider off, right at the very start of the race....and then continuing to run the entire race without a rider. Apparently, he went around a second time, according to the announcer.

I've never seen that happen at one of the TC races before...I wonder what will happen at the Belmont ?! Guess we will have to stay tuned...

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Todd K / UKC
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I admit I didn't study the Preakness at all. I did watch it. Derby took too much wind out of my sail. Even after watching that replay 100 times I still disagree. Tell me how the stretch run should be judged any different than crashing the rail out of the gate? I'll be back...just need time to sulk. lol

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Old Post 05-20-2019 03:10 PM
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ringtail
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quote:
Originally posted by Todd K / UKC
I admit I didn't study the Preakness at all. I did watch it. Derby took too much wind out of my sail. Even after watching that replay 100 times I still disagree. Tell me how the stretch run should be judged any different than crashing the rail out of the gate? I'll be back...just need time to sulk. lol

I wish I had money down!!!!!! I had War of Will for the Preakness. I had War for the Derby also, I was still butt hurt over the Derby, I picked War for the Derby because of the sloppy track. Don't know why I stayed with him for the Preakness, but glad I did. I wish I had got it posted so I could have puffed my chest up.

Will have to research the next leg. I still think War could have/ should have won the Derby.

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Rex Ridge
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Read that the owner of Maximum Security said he'd put up 20 million $s to race Max Sec against the other 4 horses, including Country House, that we're involved in the lane change at the Derby. Hope it happens.

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Todd K / UKC
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quote:
Originally posted by Rex Ridge
Read that the owner of Maximum Security said he'd put up 20 million $s to race Max Sec against the other 4 horses, including Country House, that we're involved in the lane change at the Derby. Hope it happens.


Yeah, I'm not sure how I feel about that. Match racing used to be a common thing in the sport. In that respect, I think it would have some traditional flavor that has been lost in recent years. If it's a publicity stunt by someone who has more money than they know what to do with I'm less impressed.

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