Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
Posts: 6113

Post positions and morning line odds are set for the Derby. Who you liking and why?

So because I never bet the favorite I need to find a horse that can beat Nyquist. I really like Exaggerator but some of that stems from me being a fan of his daddy Curlin. But Exaggerator is a guaranteed win if it's an off track I think. And he is a tough horse that can take the bump and grind in a 20 horse field. He's already been beat by Nyquist but the Derby is not your average race. But even Exaggerator is going to be short odds.

I'm really thinking about using Mohaymen. He was the clear favorite before the FL Derby and had a terrible race. I'm going to toss that race and hope he has trained, and runs, back to form.

Right now....Exaggerator x Mohaymen in an exacta box.

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Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 2760

Exaggerator will run outside, Mohaymen won five in a row, but finished 4th in his last outing.

Take a shot, run with the Gun Runner!


A little more hay to chew on, my track record for picking the winner is slightly less than stellar. If there was only one horse in the race and I bet on him, he would break his leg and fall over 10' from the finish line.

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Registered: Feb 2013
Location: Indiana
Posts: 4545

Sad.......

quote:

---

Originally posted by ringtail
Exaggerator will run outside, Mohaymen won five in a row, but finished 4th in his last outing.

Take a shot, run with the Gun Runner!


A little more hay to chew on, my track record for picking the winner is slightly less than stellar. If there was only one horse in the race and I bet on him, he would break his leg and fall over 10' from the finish line.

---

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: North GA
Posts: 14388

Any spotted ones racing?

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Michael Ghorley

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
Posts: 6113

Lots of grey horses this year. Tapit colts.

Gun Runner got the best draw for sure. Closers on both sides of him. He should get an easy start and a ground saving rail trip. He could get it done.

I'm starting to hedge a little on Exaggerator. They are saying they want to hold him way back off the pace and I hate betting on trying to close from that far out in a 20 horse field!

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Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 2760

Todd, did you go with Exaggerator?

I too you not to listen to me. Lol I finished 3rd

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ringtail dave

"TREE MY DOG" - NO BETTER FEELING

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Today, I rode my horse in a Scavenger Hunt for Wounded Warriors and we got 3rd. Got home in time to watch the Derby with friends .... nice race.

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Registered: Jan 2016
Location: Central Pa
Posts: 1114

You done good looking at Exaggerator, but you shoulda stuck with the favorite for the win. Ha. Nyquist is a nice horse, doesn't seem like he's extra special to me, but 8 straight wins say otherwise. Have to see what he shows in the Preakness. Maybe we're in for a back to back Triple Crown winner?

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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
Posts: 363

Nice work Todd and Ringtail!

For trying to avoid the favorite you guys nailed 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

Todd even called it on them holding Exaggerator back and worrying about him being able to close in a big field. He darned near did it though.

Then again you probably didn't win any $ picking 2nd through 4th....... LOL!

I'm going to have Todd do my research before I hit the track.

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
Posts: 6113

I didn't win anything but felt good about my handicapping. Race played out exactly how I thought it would.

I think Nyquist has a real good shot at winning the Preakness but I also don't think he has any chance at winning the Belmont. I think I like this horse racing a little too much. Good thing I don't live near a track! lol

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Registered: Feb 2016
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Posts: 99

Our club is 20 minutes from Churchill Downs we had a two night hunt derby weekend we have to get this hunt changed

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Registered: Feb 2016
Location:
Posts: 99

Our club is 20 minutes from Churchill Downs we had a two night hunt derby weekend we have to get this hunt changed

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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
Posts: 363

O.k. Todd,

If we are leaving out the heavy favorite, Exaggerator......

Destin and Stradavari? Put them in an Exacta or Quinella?

Or include Exaggerator and box all 3 of them for a Trifecta?

For a loooongshot bet, Seeking the Soul to possibly beat expectations? Maybe a "show" bet on him?

Or shoot for the moon and box all 4 of them for a Superfecta?!?!?

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Registered: Aug 2013
Location: Seneca, Mo
Posts: 5932

Small across the board bet on each. Or large if you got deep pockets.

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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
Posts: 363

Have tried that in the past, rarely works for me. If one of the better odds horses wins, which is generally the case, the payback margin is so low that the other 10-15 "losing" bets eat up all the gains (or even more, and you come out behind).

Typically do best boxing or "wheeling" 3-5 horses in an Exacta, Trifecta, or even Superfecta. Have to include a long shot in the mix too so if they surprise with a finish in the money it makes for a huge payback. If you do this with just all the best odds horses and they all finish in the top (as expected) the payout is peanuts.

So Todd, who is the 20-1 or 30-1 diamond in the rough that is going to make this work?

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Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Kalamazoo, Mich.
Posts: 6113

I was still hoping Exaggerator would win because he's a Curlin colt. Wide trip and outa gas was not a good situation for him. I don't think we've heard the last of him.

I didn't get a chance to handicap that race. I thought Sudden Breaking News would run better and Stradivarious scared me. I would have lost money as I didn't see those grey horses coming in like that.

I like to bet the 2nd or 3rd favorite across the board if I'm at the track and just want to drink free all day. I rarely chase trifectas but do like to play an exacta box if there are a couple I like.

Looking forward to the Breeder's Cup next!

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Registered: Jul 2008
Location: N.E. Iowa
Posts: 363

I "won" Saturday. Because I didn't place a bet......

Good thing too, Destin was the only one I had in the top 4.

Lots of middle odds horses finished in the top, made for big Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta payouts. IF someone picked them right...........

I know those exotic bets rarely pan out but if you hit just one it will make the whole day, or season.

Could have boxed 4 horses for an exacta at a cost of $12 and won $269. Or 5 horses for a Trifecta at a cost of $60 and got paid $1,375. Assuming you included the right 2-3 horses.......

And the Superfecta paid almost $14k on a $1 bet.........

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