Registered: Oct 2012
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time to give you your yearly betting thumpin :P



picks?

I love the field this year, I think I counted at least 6 Tapit colts (a Pulpit son/ A. P. Indy grandson out of an Unbridled mare )

I ALWAYS go with something that has Unbridled in its blood, and the field is loaded with it.


place your bets gentlemen.

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I've just started researching the potential field. Need to go back and watch all the prep races. The first one that sounds interesting is that colt by Big Brown. California bred that is undefeated. A big monster that is athletic and fast. Sounds like his daddy.

I heard that colt American Pharoah blew away the Arkansas Derby field. Yeah...it's getting interesting. The preps are over.

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I seen the Big Brown colt in the field too.......and a Lemon Drop Kid colt as well.

the American Pharoah colt looked awesome.

I was shocked at how MANY Tapit colts there were though, and from lots of different owners and trainers. not to mention a wide range of mare pedigrees. He must really be producing.

With a Pulpit/ A P Indy/ Unbridled pedigree though why wouldn't he be. I don't think any other pedigree mix in the entire TB breed comes close to the %s of top runners it produces.


I don't really have a pick yet.........but I am sure leaning towards one of those Tapit colts.

2 things I was always told about the betting window was to always put money on Unbridled blood, and never bet on the Derby favorite. You will walk away a winner more often than a loser.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

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Im picking #3 if their is a num 3.

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Michael Ghorley

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American P and Carpe Diem look to be bred exactly the same. Unbridled x Storm Cat. Those two and Dortmund are going to go off at nearly even money. The challenge is finding something in the field that has a legit shot at beating them!

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American P also has a double shot of Bold Ruler. One through Secretariat (bold ruler son) and another through Key to the Kingdo (another son)

Baffert trained and ran his sire too and must really like the colt.

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I have my favorite. Frosted. I love this horses pedigree.

7 of the top 30 are Tapit colts. A stud who started out with a $15k breeding fee that jumped to $300k on his offsprings ability alone. It wasn't handed to him, he earned it.


once the blinders came off, this colt blossomed. He doesn't back down he thrives on competition. places and shows in all distances of races, and a win at the Woods ( when they finally let him stare down the field) tells me he will only improve as the races get longer. I think he gets bored if he cant see the challenger.

the double shot of Bold Ruler in American P worries me, but the bright side is a lot of Native blood far back through several places. I still like him and am keeping an eye on him.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

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Derby draw is tonite! Gonna be a good derby. Most talented field in years. I'll make my predictions when I see where they are starting from.

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Bad draw. I hate when the big horses get drawn to bad posts. Worked out good for Dortmund but Carpe Diem gets behind the rail in the 2 and American Pharoh way outside in the 18. All because they are letting about 8 horses start that don't even belong in the race. This could be a premier horse race with the 12 best in the world starting. Instead it's a dang circus and more dependent on luck than anything else.

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Last edited by Todd K / UKC on 04-30-2015 at 03:15 PM

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Im still sticking with Frosted. Tapit is my new unbridled, as I really like how he earned his spot as a stud.

I also like Itsaknockout.

I think Carpe Diem will show, but drew too close to the rail. given a flawless start and if he can avoid getting boxed in he might do even better.

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The only reason I'm not playing Frosted is because of his connections. I do think he's a good colt. The only reason I'm not playing American Pharoah is because he's the favorite and his post draw is questionable.

So my bet is on it's way to Kentucky. Here ya go with a free tip after much study and deliberation. $2 trifecta box on the 8 (Dortmund), 10 (Firing Line) and 5 (Danzig Moon).

Good luck everyone. Going to be a great race.

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the three I mentioned are going in my trifecta..........but I gotta put some $$ on Frosted to win.

doing our old $20 bets,

im putting $2 on Frosted to win and $8 to show

$6 on the trifecta of Frosted, Itsaknockout, and Carpe Diem

and $2 each for Itsaknockout and Carpe Diem to show.


even if I lose it all, I have money left over from past yrs bettings , so im betting the ponies dime :P

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*billy jack

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2 down, field is getting a little smaller. EL Kabeir and International Star scratched.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

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Yall lost.

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Kellam did good picking Firing Line and Dortmund. If he adopts my betting strategy in the future with those kind of picks he will cash out at the window

my boy Frosted came in a respectable 4th. I thought he would do better, but still not bad considering the packed field he ran against.

true to tradition though, I will be rooting for American Pharoah in the Preakness. I hope he takes it all, because if a triple crown winner comes out of this years field he EARNED it.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it.

Robert E. Lee

Last edited by blackflagginit on 05-03-2015 at 03:06 AM

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I dont think he has a triple crown in him. One of those 2 will beat him if they run. You think they'd run Dortmund against him again? Dont believe I would.

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Michael Ghorley

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I wouldn't run Dortmund in the Preakness if it was me but who knows what they will do. to me it looked like he flat got ran down. I don't think he is up for the longer races or the quick secession of races either. JMO.

Frosted on the other hand went from something like 14th at the final turn to 4th at the wire. I don't think he matched APs final burst (looked like he was gaining clear up to the last stride) but I think more distance might have changed that.

long story short, Dortmund was fading, AP, Firing Line and Frosted still had gas left.

I think one of those 2 will spoil APs bid for the triple crown. Frosted is still my bet as a spoiler, but I might be wrong. He (AP) ran an outstanding race with speed and endurance to spare, he might just run everybody down farther as the races get longer.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it.

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Hey I'm pulling for AP to win the triple crown. I wanna see one win it again. This is a good crop of three year olds and the next two races should be great. I hope he doesn't get taken out by a well rested specialist who skipped races like last year.

A buddy of mine wanted to bet and wanted to spend $10. I told him to $5 exacta box AP x Firing Line. So he's $180 richer. And hooked on betting horse races.

I don't think Dortmund's connections expected him to be setting the pace. Don't think that helped him any. I feel pretty good about my picks this year. My third horse Danzig Moon ran 5th. Out-handicapped blackflagginit again....that's always fun. lol

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I think you're right about Dortmund setting the pace, I don't think that was in there plan lol.

AP has a good shot at the triple crown. I don't think anything that didn't run the Derby has much of a shot at being the spoiler. someone who ran might, but I just don't see anything else doing it. who knows.


I can promise you this though, given a top blooded TB mare and $300k just laying around, this boy would be making a trip to see Tapit.

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when policemen ignore the law, then there isn't any law. there's just a fight for survival.

*billy jack

It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it.

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Preakness Stakes !! This is going to be a horse race! Only 8 starters. American Pharoh draws post 1. Dortmund post 2. Firing Line in the 8.

$2 tri box with American Pharoh, Dortmund, and Danzig Moon.

Sure would like to witness a Triple Crown.

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Such excitement! Bob and I have had to DVR the races with staying at my elderly mums for weekends. I will NOT watch with her cause someone often breaksdown if she watches!

I have to say... Amer. Pharoah is one of the nicest pieces of horseflesh I've ever seen...and I've seen some good ones here on my farm for rehab back in the day. He is pretty much Perfect with that lovely muscle tone. I hope he will not break down and a triple crown would be a thrill....

I have picked the top three in both races, here at home. I haven't had the order right but the winner though... I have no scientific method. I have picked a couple purely by name alone...LOL... Pretty heads etc. Amer. Pharoah a more scientific approach. Good horse..just plain good around and good team.

Hope you all have fun watching the Belmont and do some good at the betting windows... If you dare bet some long shots especially!
HappyHorsing, Heather

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We going to see a Triple Crown winner Saturday? I'm going to bet that we are. And yes, I know a lot of people thought the same thing with Chrome and Big Brown and a host of others that ended up getting beat in the Belmont but I think there is a difference this year.

Typically they bring in some well rested, long distance specialist for an upset. I don't see that this year. He's already beat everyone in this field. It's still racing and anything can happen but barring any unforeseen weirdness, I say AP wins this one going away.

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Id bet against it

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Michael Ghorley

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I think we WILL see a Triple Crown winner here in a few minutes. I'm worried about Frosted but I still think Pharaoh will get it done, we are about to see.

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We now have a TRIPLE CROWN first time in 37 years,,wow

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