Rip
UKC Forum Member
Registered: Jun 2003
Location: Morrison TN
Posts: 4927 |
Well Walkers don't win the majority of the spots at the breed days of the other breeds, but there are some there hunting. Does that mean for that weekend the other breeds were just better than every walker?
It takes a good dog in the right situation to win usually.
But, if one breed has 50 entered and one has 1 entered which one does the odds favor?
Tell ya what, lets put 1000 bucks a piece in a poole and draw a number for the winner. I have 70 of the numbers and you can have 30 of them. Blind draw. I'll do that with you all night, whatdya say?
I've won hunts when I was the only off breed dog there 30 walkers and one off breed, but at that particular hunt the odds were against a black dog to win, and they were against the red dogs, blue dogs, plotts cause there were ZERO of them.
Put it like this, if at a particular hunt, say the Winter Classic, in order for them to be considered a better breed they would have to win a significant number of casts MORE than their average. In other words if they made up 60% of the entrys they would have to win 90% of the casts to be statistically significant, maybe more.
Look up P values and try to learn about them to understand how big an advantage numbers are. If you have a P value of 0.05 that means there is still a 5 percent chance that the result was strictly due to random chance. That's what is used as the cutoff to prove something statistically.
I've got news for you. The cast win percentages have been figgured year after year and it is very rare that there is much difference at all. Matter of fact the "off breeds" usually do better, in other words you had a better chance of being a cast winner if you were leading an "off breed" than if you were leading a walker (15% of the walkers won their cast 30% of the black dogs won their cast etc).
Numbers are a huge, huge advantage.
By the same token I also believe the only reason there are more slick treeing walkers/ill/poor mouthed/losing is because there are more of them as well. The percentage isn't that much different.
It still takes a good dog to win most of the time, but the other breeds are able to dominate their breed hunts due to numbers as well. You can see that most every breed days, doesn't mean that they suddenly got better, it means they had the numbers advantage.
Any particular dog can beat the odds, as a matter of fact there can only be one winner so every time a dog wins it "beats the odds" so to speak, it's just easier for a particular breed to claim the top spot if they have more entrys.
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Let's go huntin
Last edited by Rip on 02-07-2009 at 07:39 PM
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