UKC Forums - % of Breed Winners at Autumn Oaks

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-- % of Breed Winners at Autumn Oaks (http://forums.ukcdogs.com/showthread.php?threadid=300806)

Posted by on 09-18-2009 10:00 PM:

% of Breed Winners at Autumn Oaks

Plott's entered---------25 / casts won--06----% of plotts that won their cast 24.00%
Redbone's entered----58 / casts won--12----% of redbones that won their cast 20.69%
English entered--------78 / casts won--30----% of english that won their cast 38.46%
Walker's entered-----499 / casts won--69----% of walkers that won their cast 13.83%
Blue's entered --------151 / casts won--19----% of blues that won their cast 12.58%
B&T's entered---------121 / casts won--15----% of B&Ts that won their cast 12.40%

Plotts that lost their cast - 19
Redbones that lost their cast - 46
English that lost their cast - 48
B&Ts that lost their cast - 106
Blueticks that lost their cast - 132
Walkers that lost their cast - 430

Plotts - 2.68% of all dogs entered
Redbones - 6.22% of all dogs entered
English - 8.37% of all dogs entered
Walker - 53.54% of all dogs entered
Blueticks - 16.2% of all dogs entered
B&Ts - 12.98% of all dogs entered

theres the numbers shown in a little different way, lol...

Posted by john Duemmer on 09-18-2009 10:18 PM:

Now if you subtract out all the casts that were all walker dogs so they dont automatically get a cast win that would be a good statistic.

Posted by on 09-18-2009 10:20 PM:

there was 932 dogs entered, according to what was put on here, making a total of 233 casts. How many were all walker dog casts I would like to know? If you just figure one out of every 6 casts were all walkers, then there were 38 casts that were all walkers. I know that isnt an accurate way to do it, but lets just work with that for a minute...
there were 499 walkers entered, 69 won their casts, take out the 38 casts that were (theoretically) all walkers, leaving 31 casts won by walkers with at least one dog of another breed in he cast, you got 6.21 % of walkers won their casts (against at least one dog of another breed), out of all the walkers entered.

Posted by on 09-18-2009 10:24 PM:

Nobody "automatically" gets a cast win in UKC. ....PLUS POINTS!

Posted by on 09-18-2009 10:27 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by JiM
Nobody "automatically" gets a cast win in UKC. ....PLUS POINTS!

That is a fact

Posted by john Duemmer on 09-18-2009 10:27 PM:

Yeah Jim I know, but a 4 walker cast pretty good chance its gonna be won by a walker.

Posted by john Duemmer on 09-18-2009 10:30 PM:

I will put it in simpler form. A 4 walker cast has no chance of being won by any other breed.

Posted by HOBO on 09-19-2009 12:37 AM:

It never ceases to amaze me how people want to use this stat to try and prove a point. YOU CAN'T do it this way. Of course when you have more of one breed(WALKERS of course) your also going to loose a larger number of cast.

The only way this stat would prove anything would be if we went to a 6 opps I mean 7 dog cast one of each breed. Then you could use your %'s can get a good look at it.

Until then you all can keep trying to make the Walkers look bad but all you have to do is look in the winners circle and usually you'll see a Walker.

And that as Paul Harvey would say IS THE REST OF THE STORY...

GOOD DAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted by on 09-19-2009 12:47 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by HOBO
Of course when you have more of one breed(WALKERS of course) your also going to loose a larger number of cast.

You just proved my point, thanks

Posted by Allen / UKC on 09-19-2009 12:58 AM:

Hobo, Hobo, Hobo. You can't leave it alone can ya? Why ya always wanna rain on the parade?

Posted by HOBO on 09-19-2009 01:05 AM:

I guess it's just the sour mood I've been in since Monday night.

Posted by Allen / UKC on 09-19-2009 01:19 AM:

Uh oh. Does this mood thing last all week?

Posted by HOBO on 09-19-2009 01:47 AM:

sent you a pm allen.

Posted by samh on 09-19-2009 05:15 AM:

Forest

Your numbers show the total % of cast winners. So basically you are saying that 46% of the dogs that won their cast were walkers. However 53.54% of the total entered were walkers. If I look at your numbers with Bluestyle's the best is the English at 38% (he had a mistake in his math). That is if I did it right.

Walkers - 46%
Blue- 13%
Black/Tan - 10%
English - 20%
Red - 8%
Plott 4%

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Posted by honalieh on 09-19-2009 05:15 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Forest
nice try at fuzzy math.

by your numbers there were 151 cast winners. so divide # of cast winners of a breed by 151.

I rounded so it equal a little more than 100%. But the numbers are pretty close to the percentages that were actually entered.

Walkers - 46%
Blue- 13%
Black/Tan - 10%
English - 20%
Red - 8%
Plott 4%

Thats the right way to look at things. I did a little fancier calculation based on the same basics as you, and considered that all dogs were proportionately represented in the casts with no winners, and 3 out of 4 dogs lose their cast.

Cast Winners vs. Expected Cast Winners :

--------- Expected------ Actual ---- Variance % of Expected CW's
Plott ------------4 ---------- 6----------+2-------------150%
Redbone ------ 9 ----------12---------+3-------------133%
English --------13 ---------30----------+17-----------231%
Walker---------81----------69---------- (-12)---------85%
Blue ----------- 24----------19---------- (-5)-----------79%
B&T------------ 20-----------15----------(-5)-----------75%

Totals---------151---------151

I see this as looking good for English, not so good for B&T and Bluetick, and statistically insignificant for Plotts and Reds (Lets remember, a lot of the top Walkers were at another Labor Day Event---that doesn't apply so much for the other breeds).

Posted by akso235 on 09-19-2009 06:58 AM:

your percentages dont include the leps entered

Posted by jbpriest on 09-19-2009 08:20 AM:

I'll stick with B&Ts.

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Posted by burdette on 09-19-2009 02:48 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by jbpriest
I'll stick with B&Ts.

I SECOND THAT ONE LOL. i dont date ugly women and im sure not hunting a ugly breed of dogs.

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Posted by Lee Currens Jr. on 09-19-2009 03:01 PM:

cast wins

all dogs had a 25% chance when drawed, at the end of the
night what was crowned?the way you guys try to sugar
coat stuff will never work.how many handlers scratched
and went home knowing they didnt have enough pts
after the 1st drop.

Posted by john nannemann on 09-19-2009 08:31 PM:

go english!!!!

Posted by john nannemann on 09-20-2009 12:58 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by honalieh

Cast Winners vs. Expected Cast Winners :

--------- Expected------ Actual ---- Variance % of Expected CW's

English --------13 ---------30----------+17-----------231%
Walker---------81----------69---------- (-12)---------85%

read em and weep. lol

Posted by on 09-20-2009 02:16 AM:

Re: Forest

quote:
Originally posted by samh
Your numbers show the total % of cast winners. So basically you are saying that 46% of the dogs that won their cast were walkers. However 53.54% of the total entered were walkers. If I look at your numbers with Bluestyle's the best is the English at 38% (he had a mistake in his math). That is if I did it right.

Walkers - 46%
Blue- 13%
Black/Tan - 10%
English - 20%
Red - 8%
Plott 4%

Thanks for correcting that Samh, I am definitely no math whiz...

Posted by roughcreek on 09-20-2009 02:37 AM:

i thought i read before AO 178 english entered ?

Posted by on 09-20-2009 03:22 AM:

I am not sure on the numbers, someone put them on here, saying they got them from UKC's front page

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