UKC Forums - Lets Have A Bet !!!!!!!!!

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Posted by OLD TIMER on 10-10-2008 02:44 PM:

Lets Have A Bet !!!!!!!!!

Which dog food company will be the "first" to lower their prices ???

Corn is down about $3.00 a bushel, fat is down $140.00 a ton, diesel is down .60 cents a gallon, crude oil down $60.00 a barrel.

Who will it be ?????

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Posted by K. Singletary on 10-10-2008 03:07 PM:

I don't know who will lower it, but I bet it won't come down as fast as it went up!!!!

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Posted by Ellie Mae on 10-10-2008 03:17 PM:

Hmmmm. I say (d) none of the above.

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Posted by Larry Atherton on 10-10-2008 03:20 PM:

I second what Kenny said!

PS It is nice to see ya on the board, Old Timer.

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Posted by blueticker on 10-10-2008 03:33 PM:

I called to get some corn yesterday and couldn't buy any under $10 a hundred. The COOP didn't have any on hand bought at the lower price. I guess if they have to set on it for a while it will come down. Local farmers are storing lots instead of selling at the lower price. Projected corn yields were up 2 bu. per acre from last month. Doesn't seem like much but increase the crop from 12 B to 12.2 billion bu.

Posted by Family on 10-10-2008 04:49 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by blueticker
I called to get some corn yesterday and couldn't buy any under $10 a hundred. The COOP didn't have any on hand bought at the lower price. I guess if they have to set on it for a while it will come down. Local farmers are storing lots instead of selling at the lower price. Projected corn yields were up 2 bu. per acre from last month. Doesn't seem like much but increase the crop from 12 B to 12.2 billion bu.

MFA inMissouri already lowered from 26.10$ =50lb to 25.50$=50lb
24$ = 50lb
but missouri is like that. ...
Gas 2.99 friday
gas 2.89 monday
gas 2.79 today.

I want 1.99 for huntin season and we are on our way to it.

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Posted by coonsmen on 10-10-2008 05:11 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Family
MFA inMissouri already lowered from 26.10$ =50lb to 25.50$=50lb
24$ = 50lb
but missouri is like that. ...
Gas 2.99 friday
gas 2.89 monday
gas 2.79 today.

I want 1.99 for huntin season and we are on our way to it.

dream on. haha
that would make things too easy for us poor people to get out and hunt. besides alot of people were counting on using gas as the reason they werent keeping their dogs in shape. now what can they use?lol

Posted by HOBO on 10-10-2008 06:29 PM:

Ya'll place your bets and send the money to me to pay out to the winner........

Hows everything up North Old Timer????

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Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 06:29 PM:

Re: Lets Have A Bet !!!!!!!!!

quote:
Originally posted by OLD TIMER
Which dog food company will be the "first" to lower their prices ???

Corn is down about $3.00 a bushel, fat is down $140.00 a ton, diesel is down .60 cents a gallon, crude oil down $60.00 a barrel.

Who will it be ?????

I talked yesterday with one of the factory reps....

Trust me...it's a domino effect. The answer I got last week about this same question was that rice was up....when I asked it it was up enough to offset the other decreases...the answer was "no"....

They are watching each other....and wondering themselves who will "flinch" first.... Once one drops...the rest will follow suit...

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UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by Maniac on 10-10-2008 06:53 PM:

i would say there wont be a price drop on the dog food. because they know that people will still buy food cause they haft to feed their pets. but i could be WRONG! if you realy think about it food went up cause of the price a frate. big R tractor suply tsc . they all got a 50% rite up on every thing. so that tells you what they are makeing off us people. and some store have alittle more than 50% rite up.

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Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 07:02 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Maniac
i would say there wont be a price drop on the dog food. because they know that people will still buy food cause they haft to feed their pets. but i could be WRONG! if you realy think about it food went up cause of the price a frate. big R tractor suply tsc . they all got a 50% rite up on every thing. so that tells you what they are makeing off us people. and some store have alittle more than 50% rite up.

Here is the "fly" in your ointment.

According to my industry source (I'm not making this up), prices rose on a bag of feed because of the increase in ingredient prices. The company that I am aware of does not charge for FOB including freight....Freight is charged by the actual mile, and paid to the trucking company. This company got out of the shipping business and now contracts the shipping.

The plant where the feed is made is operating at an 85 to 90 percent capacity, and they raised the price per bag to remain profitable based upon capacity and expense to make the feed. The are currently making a profit at their current productivity rate.

HOWEVER, over the past few months, they have seen overall orders drop....they are still making the same profit per bag (they buy large quantities of ingredients, and therefore have not yet recongnized the drop in commodity prices), but orders are dropping off...the assumption or fear is that folks are cutting back on the NUMBER of dogs that they are feeding.

Now, we all know that a plant that is running efficiently at 85% capacity will not be as profitable as one that is running at 65% capacity....so the decision point is when to drop the per bag price, to maintain volume......

It's not as easy as you think.

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UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by Family on 10-10-2008 07:03 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by coonsmen
dream on. haha
that would make things too easy for us poor people to get out and hunt. besides alot of people were counting on using gas as the reason they werent keeping their dogs in shape. now what can they use?lol

dream on what ? do ya want me to go take pics of gas station
signs and MFA receipt.
for real $2.79 a glallon for gas TODAY
What are you all payin?
my family in Chicago says 3.49 downtown n 3.98 in suburbs oh yea dont forget to pay your tolls....HA!

Posted by OLD TIMER on 10-10-2008 07:30 PM:

HOBO -- doing just fine.

Paid $2.81.9 for gas here this morning.

Highest we paid for corn this summer was $6.90 a bushel--- today $3.68.

March I paid $446.75 a ton for 54% meat and bone meal ---today $351.50.

This summer I paid .4125 a pound for fat----today .2600

We use enough ingredients to make about 7,800 tons a week, so I do watch the markets a little bit.

I am not looking for the same price as last summer----but sure don't think holding the summer highs is right.

The feed I feed went up $8.00 a bag, would feel that a $2 to $4 drop is not out of the guestion?

__________________
OLD TIMER

Posted by Maniac on 10-10-2008 07:51 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Oak Ridge
Here is the "fly" in your ointment.

According to my industry source (I'm not making this up), prices rose on a bag of feed because of the increase in ingredient prices. The company that I am aware of does not charge for FOB including freight....Freight is charged by the actual mile, and paid to the trucking company. This company got out of the shipping business and now contracts the shipping.

The plant where the feed is made is operating at an 85 to 90 percent capacity, and they raised the price per bag to remain profitable based upon capacity and expense to make the feed. The are currently making a profit at their current productivity rate.

HOWEVER, over the past few months, they have seen overall orders drop....they are still making the same profit per bag (they buy large quantities of ingredients, and therefore have not yet recongnized the drop in commodity prices), but orders are dropping off...the assumption or fear is that folks are cutting back on the NUMBER of dogs that they are feeding.

Now, we all know that a plant that is running efficiently at 85% capacity will not be as profitable as one that is running at 65% capacity....so the decision point is when to drop the per bag price, to maintain volume......

It's not as easy as you think.

well i know for the fact that bigR tsc tractor suply and most of the other stores have a 50% rite up. i have talked to some of the managers.

Posted by blueticker on 10-10-2008 08:20 PM:

It will come down if ingredient prices stay dowm. One company will have lower inputs and will lower prices to gain market share, the others will follow.

Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 08:34 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Maniac
well i know for the fact that bigR tsc tractor suply and most of the other stores have a 50% rite up. i have talked to some of the managers.

Jay,

So what you are telling me is that Diamond is giving a 50% "discount" to TSC or Big R for the feed they buy?

I keep close tabs on feed prices, and have for quite some time, since I was buying feed 22 ton at a time.

One of those stores is having a "feed sale" this weekend. They are selling the Diamond 24/20 for $17.99 per bag. Now I know that shipping is currently running between .75 and 1.00 a bag...so that brings the FOB price down to 16.99 a bag.

If what you say is true, somehow TSC is buying that same bag of diamond for around $8.50 a bag. I find that very, very, hard to believe that Diamond is selling TSC feed at a loss....

I'm sure that there are some items in the inventory at TSC that are marked up by 50%, but feed, be it dog food, or goat feed is NOT marked up by %50 anywhere.

__________________
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UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by Maniac on 10-10-2008 08:54 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Oak Ridge
Jay,

So what you are telling me is that Diamond is giving a 50% "discount" to TSC or Big R for the feed they buy?

I keep close tabs on feed prices, and have for quite some time, since I was buying feed 22 ton at a time.

One of those stores is having a "feed sale" this weekend. They are selling the Diamond 24/20 for $17.99 per bag. Now I know that shipping is currently running between .75 and 1.00 a bag...so that brings the FOB price down to 16.99 a bag.

If what you say is true, somehow TSC is buying that same bag of diamond for around $8.50 a bag. I find that very, very, hard to believe that Diamond is selling TSC feed at a loss....

I'm sure that there are some items in the inventory at TSC that are marked up by 50%, but feed, be it dog food, or goat feed is NOT marked up by %50 anywhere.

well maybe you need to jump in your truck and go talk to a manager. i just talk to a manager at plymouth tractor suply. and another thing it doesnt cost that much money to make dog food. alot of your food is made out of (scraps). chicken feet beaks guts. SO SENCE YOU KNOW IT ALL !!!! ILL LEAVE IT AT THAT!!!!

Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 09:00 PM:

Re: HOBO -- doing just fine.

quote:
Originally posted by OLD TIMER
Paid $2.81.9 for gas here this morning.

Highest we paid for corn this summer was $6.90 a bushel--- today $3.68.

March I paid $446.75 a ton for 54% meat and bone meal ---today $351.50.

This summer I paid .4125 a pound for fat----today .2600

We use enough ingredients to make about 7,800 tons a week, so I do watch the markets a little bit.

I am not looking for the same price as last summer----but sure don't think holding the summer highs is right.

The feed I feed went up $8.00 a bag, would feel that a $2 to $4 drop is not out of the guestion?

quote:
Originally posted by Maniac
well maybe you need to jump in your truck and go talk to a manager. i just talk to a manager at plymouth tractor suply. and another thing it doesnt cost that much money to make dog food. alot of your food is made out of (scraps). chicken feet beaks guts. SO SENCE YOU KNOW IT ALL !!!! ILL LEAVE IT AT THAT!!!!

Jay,

If I said the sky was blue...you would argue with me....

Read Old Timer's post.....Corn, fat, meal, and other ingredient prices are listed right above your argument. Sounds to me that Old Timer is making "about 7,800 tons a week" of dog food.

Ask him if he thinks that anyone is selling 24/20 dog food for $8.50 a bag...shoot, ask him if he could MAKE it for that...not what he's selling it for.

__________________
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UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by pegjerben on 10-10-2008 09:28 PM:

anybody that has ever worked in retail will tell you that not all the items in the store are sold at a profit. Granted, most are or they would be out of business. But there are some items that the big stores price at or near cost just to get you in the store to buy the other items with a higher profit margin.
One good example - did you ever price a case of beer at your local grocery chain and at your local bar and wonder why the grocery store sells it so much cheaper? It's not because of the volume they buy, it's because they hope you will buy lots of other things while you are there.
Same with dog food.

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Benson's Oakwood Kennels

Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 09:47 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by pegjerben
anybody that has ever worked in retail will tell you that not all the items in the store are sold at a profit. Granted, most are or they would be out of business. But there are some items that the big stores price at or near cost just to get you in the store to buy the other items with a higher profit margin.
One good example - did you ever price a case of beer at your local grocery chain and at your local bar and wonder why the grocery store sells it so much cheaper? It's not because of the volume they buy, it's because they hope you will buy lots of other things while you are there.
Same with dog food.

Be careful Peggi....if you start applying logic and a first hand knowledge of business, you might get accused of knowing everything......

__________________
Joe Newlin
UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 09:57 PM:

I don't know the formulation of dog food, but here is what I do know.

If I took a ton of corn at Old Timers price, a ton of meat and bone meal, at Old Timer's Price, and a ton of fat at old timers price....

That's three ton of "raw" material. If I add up the cost of the ingredients as given, and assume that I can make three ton of dog food...that's 983.50 in Ingredients alone, divide that by 120 bags (40 bags of 50 pounds each)...that's $8.19 per bag in cost ALONE.....

Now I'm smart enough to know that there is not a third of a ton of fat per ton of feed, but I'm not dumb enough to believe that because dog food is made for "chicken feet, beaks, and "guts" that there is a 50% retail mark up on dog feed.

__________________
Joe Newlin
UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by Tim Trone on 10-10-2008 10:58 PM:

i have tried telling everyone about loyall i dont believe to many people payed attention. but since january it has only went up around 1.50 to 2.00 that is not bad and it is a very good dog food. could be because it doesnt have corn in it . i wont change if they raise their prices.

Posted by Oak Ridge on 10-10-2008 11:20 PM:

I've been listening...but they won't call me back!

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UKC Cur Advocate
Home of Oak Ridge Kennels

Posted by pegjerben on 10-11-2008 03:16 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by Oak Ridge
Be careful Peggi....if you start applying logic and a first hand knowledge of business, you might get accused of knowing everything......

naw, I'm just a female - what on earth could I know about anything?????

__________________
Jerry and Peggi Benson
Benson's Oakwood Kennels

Posted by RedBones4me on 10-11-2008 01:47 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by pegjerben
anybody that has ever worked in retail will tell you that not all the items in the store are sold at a profit. Granted, most are or they would be out of business. But there are some items that the big stores price at or near cost just to get you in the store to buy the other items with a higher profit margin.
One good example - did you ever price a case of beer at your local grocery chain and at your local bar and wonder why the grocery store sells it so much cheaper? It's not because of the volume they buy, it's because they hope you will buy lots of other things while you are there.
Same with dog food.

I think they refer to those as Loss Leaders

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